David Denenberg On Why Homebuyers Finally Have Leverage Again - but There is a Catch in the 2026 Housing Market

Something genuinely unusual is happening in the U.S. housing market right now, and David Denenberg wants buyers and sellers to understand exactly what it means for their decisions this fall. For the first time in years, buyers are walking into negotiations with real leverage. There are more homes to choose from, sellers are making concessions, and the frantic bidding wars of the pandemic era feel like a distant memory. And yet, despite all of that, actually affording a home remains stubbornly difficult for millions of Americans. That contradiction is the defining story of the 2026 housing market, and understanding it clearly could be the difference between making a smart move and making a costly mistake.

This is not a simple buyer's market. It is not a seller's market either. What David Denenberg is watching closely right now is something more nuanced - a negotiator's market, where the biggest wins are going to the buyers who know exactly where the real savings are hiding and the sellers who are willing to adapt to a new pricing reality rather than clinging to peak-era expectations.

What the Numbers Actually Say About the 2026 Housing Market

The data tells a complicated story, and David Denenberg believes that reading it carefully is essential before making any move. According to the National Association of Realtors August 2026 Existing-Home Sales Report, existing-home sales fell 2.0% from July to August and 1.2% year over year, landing at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.98 million sales. That is a market moving in slow motion compared to historical norms.

At the same time, inventory climbed to 1.62 million homes, representing 4.9 months of supply. That number matters enormously. When supply sits below three months, sellers dominate. As supply climbs toward five months and beyond, buyers gain meaningful ground. So on the surface, the conditions look better for buyers than they have in years.

But here is where the story gets complicated. The national median existing-home price in August 2026 was $429,100, which is still 1.6% higher than a year earlier. Inventory is improving faster than transaction volume, but prices have not collapsed. They have not even come close. The market is gradually shifting negotiating power toward buyers without delivering the dramatic price corrections many hopeful buyers have been waiting for.

Then there is the mortgage rate situation, which is the single biggest constraint in the entire equation. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached 6.95% for the week ending September 17, its highest level in nearly 18 months. That number shapes everything. At 6.95%, a $400,000 30-year mortgage generates principal-and-interest payments of roughly $2,648 per month. At 4%, that same mortgage would cost approximately $1,910 per month - around $738 less every single month before taxes and insurance. That gap explains why home prices can stay relatively stable even as buyer demand remains weak. Affordability is being squeezed not primarily by listing prices, but by the cost of borrowing the money to purchase those homes.

Where Buyers Actually Have the Upper Hand Right Now

David Denenberg wants buyers to understand something important: leverage is real, even if affordability is not fully solved. Redfin reported earlier in 2026 that there were substantially more sellers than buyers active in the market, creating some of the strongest negotiating conditions buyers had experienced in years. That shift is showing up in concrete ways that smart buyers can take advantage of.

In this environment, buyers can increasingly do the following:

• Negotiate below asking price on homes that have been sitting on the market
• Request seller concessions or closing-cost assistance to reduce out-of-pocket expenses at closing
• Walk away from overpriced properties without losing out in a bidding war
• Take the time to compare more homes before committing to an offer
• Negotiate repairs and inspections rather than waiving them to stay competitive
• Target homes that have accumulated significant days on market, where seller motivation tends to be higher

Each of those represents a meaningful financial benefit that was simply not available during the peak seller's market. The ability to negotiate repairs alone can save thousands of dollars. Closing-cost credits can make the difference between a deal that works and one that doesn't. The key insight David Denenberg emphasizes is that increased leverage does not automatically solve the monthly payment problem - but it does create room to negotiate the financing and transaction terms in ways that can meaningfully reduce total costs.

The Builder Advantage That Is Changing How Buyers Should Think About Price

One of the most important developments in the 2026 housing market - and one that David Denenberg considers essential context for any serious buyer - is the widening gap between buying an existing home and buying new construction. Builders have increasingly used financing incentives rather than dramatic headline price cuts to attract buyers, and the numbers behind those incentives are striking.

According to a Realtor.com analysis of new-construction listings in August 2026, nearly one in seven new-construction listings advertised reduced mortgage rates, with an average advertised rate of just 3.92%, compared to roughly 6.67% for typical market-rate mortgages at the time. For a median-priced $450,000 new home with a 20% down payment, Realtor.com estimated that the difference between a builder-subsidized rate and a standard market rate could equal roughly $614 per month in principal and interest.

That is a staggering difference, and it raises a question that David Denenberg thinks every buyer should be asking right now: is the sticker price still the right way to compare homes, or should buyers be comparing total monthly ownership costs instead? A $450,000 new construction home with a builder-subsidized rate at 3.92% may actually be more affordable on a monthly basis than a $380,000 resale home financed at 6.95%. The headline price is misleading without understanding the full financing picture.

This dynamic is also creating competitive pressure on resale sellers. They are no longer competing only against neighboring properties - they are competing against builders who can effectively subsidize the cost of ownership through rate buydowns and financing packages. Sellers who do not account for this reality when setting their prices may find themselves sitting on the market far longer than expected.

Why Fall 2026 May Be the Best Buying Window in Years - and What Sellers Need to Accept

There is a timely dimension to all of this that David Denenberg wants to highlight for anyone considering a move this fall. Realtor.com has identified the week of September 27 through October 3, 2026 as a nationally favorable buying window based on the historical combination of inventory levels, pricing, competition, and market pace. The analysis estimates that buyers during this period could encounter roughly 31.9% more active listings than at the beginning of the year and potentially save around $14,000 compared with summer peak pricing on a median-priced home.

That is a meaningful opportunity, even against the backdrop of elevated mortgage rates. Active inventory nevertheless remains about 11% below pre-pandemic levels nationally, which means this is not a market flooded with options - but it is a market where conditions are meaningfully better than they were 18 months ago.

For sellers, the picture requires an honest accounting of where the market actually stands. Redfin reported earlier in 2026 that 5.8% of U.S. listings were taken off the market in April, tied for the highest proportion since March 2020, with many properties subsequently returning as relistings. That pattern reflects a painful mismatch between what some sellers expect to receive and what buyers can actually afford to pay at current mortgage rates. Rather than dramatic nationwide price collapses, the market is adjusting through less visible channels - mortgage-rate buydowns offered by sellers, closing-cost credits, repair allowances, gradual price reductions, and longer marketing periods.

Sellers who are willing to compete in these terms will find buyers. Sellers who are holding out for peak-market prices in a market shaped by 6.95% mortgage rates are likely to find the experience frustrating and prolonged. The pricing conversation in 2026 is not just about what a home is worth - it is about what a buyer can actually afford to pay every month, and those two numbers are further apart than they have been in a very long time.

What David Denenberg consistently brings to both buyers and sellers navigating this environment is a clear-eyed understanding of where the real opportunities and real risks lie. For buyers, the opportunity is not in waiting indefinitely for home prices to crash - it is in negotiating strategically on financing, concessions, and transaction terms right now, when leverage is genuinely available. For sellers, the opportunity is in pricing and presenting a home in a way that acknowledges the affordability constraints real buyers are facing, rather than assuming the market will return to pandemic-era dynamics.

The 2026 housing market is not simple, and it is not moving in one clean direction. It is a negotiator's market, and the people who will come out ahead are the ones who understand exactly how the pieces fit together. Whether you are considering buying this fall or trying to sell a home that has not moved, working with someone who reads the market as carefully as David Denenberg does can make an enormous difference in the outcome. If you are ready to navigate this market with a clear strategy and real expertise behind you, now is the time to have that conversation.